By Glenn Malkiewicz
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April 18, 2026
Did you know share market falls happen as often as your birthday? During any calendar year, the share market will fall -16% on average at some point during the year (see 2025 where the US share market fell by -19% during the year, however still ended the year up +16.4%). Around 80% of calendar years result in a positive return. Our friends at Humans Under Management outline this in the chart above, showing inter-year falls and the total return for any given year. At times of investment market volatility, this time due to the conflict in the Middle East, it's important you're making the right decisions with your investment approach. If we use history as our guide (it’s the only guide we have), there are no factual details about the future until it happens. The share market, which is a collection of real businesses controlled by adaptable humans, has historically proven able to overcome every event it has encountered. "The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily" - Charlie Munger The share market has historically fallen frequently (refer to the chart above), and occasionally in an extreme manner. But we believe these declines are a feature, not a bug, of the share market. Rather than trying to avoid these declines, we believe staying invested to participate in the share market's long-term growth is more important for long-term investors. As such, remaining invested is usually always the best approach. Some counterintuitive thoughts to consider as you wait for clarity on how the current crisis will unfold: A declining share market is good news for regular buyers of investment units (these are your superannuation guarantee contributions, personal super contributions, regular investments into your investment accounts, dividend reinvestment plans). During these periods, you’re buying cheaper units, and historically, these periods have tended not to last for long. We encourage you not to look at your portfolios during this turbulence, after all, you know what you’ll see. The less you look, the better you’ll feel and ultimately perform. Think long term; depending on your age, your 20 - 30 year investment horizon should not be derailed (in any way) by the last 4 weeks of news. If your portfolio has been constructed correctly, your incredible, diversified portfolios have given thought to periods of uncertainty. If you wish to discuss your investment approach and if it's aligned to your needs and future goals, feel free to reach out. Getting the sufficient return required for your situation is a more precise approach than maximising investment returns. Compliance disclaimers: “The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise. You may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance should be used as a guide only and is not a guarantee of future performance.”